INTRODUCTION: We explored if a score derived from parameters from esophageal testing could increase confidence in diagnosing conclusive gastroesophageal reflux disease and in predicting outcome.

METHODS: A prediction score was developed using metrics based on Lyon Consensus 2.0 thresholds extracted from endoscopy and pH-impedance monitoring. The Lyon score was the sum of weighted scores derived from a logistic regression model. The outcome was response to antireflux therapy, defined as 50% reduction in global symptoms on validated questionnaires. An existing database of endoscopy-negative patients with typical reflux symptoms undergoing esophageal testing from 2 centers (Europe and the United States) constituted the developmental cohort, while 2 separate cohorts (Europe and Asia) served as validation cohorts. Receiver operating characteristics analysis determined performance of the Lyon score in predicting treatment response.

RESULTS: In 281 developmental cohort patients (median age 53 years, 57.7% female), the Lyon score demonstrated an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.819 in predicting 50% symptom improvement ( P < 0.001) on receiver operating characteristics, with an optimal threshold of 6.25 (sensitivity 81.2%, specificity 73.4%). Of the individual components, only acid exposure time (AUC 0.799, P < 0.001), mean nocturnal baseline impedance (AUC 0.785, P < 0.001), and reflux episodes (AUC 0.764, P < 0.001) approached the Lyon score performance. The Lyon score segregated treatment response in both the European (AUC 0.908, P < 0.001) and Asian validation cohorts (AUC 0.637, P < 0.001) and outperformed the DeMeester score in sensitivity for predicting outcome in the developmental and Asian validation cohorts.

DISCUSSION: The novel Lyon score segregates reflux phenotypes and identifies likelihood of symptom response from antireflux therapy.